Home › Forums › Kansas City Chiefs › KC Chiefs News and Discussion › Let’s talk about what Alex Smith is worth on the trade market.
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01/13/2018 at 7:56 pm #753691::
As Bike so aptly pointed out in the Alex to the Pro Bowl thread we NEED draft picks and we NEED cap space. And the easiest way to probably get some of both is to trade our Pro Bowl QB. According to overthecap.com trading Alex saves us $17 million in cap space. That ain’t chump change. Cutting Tamba Hali (GOD! I hate saying that!) saves us another $8 million in cap space. So with just 2 moves we can go from being something like $5 million over the cap in 2018 to having something like $20 million in cap space. Doesn’t make us rich, but it surely would make us a lot better off. Of course, we can cut Alex (I HATE saying that) but that doesn’t solve our draft pick problem.
So we need to trade Alex. So the obvious question is “WHAT CAN WE GET FOR HIM?” I’d like to hear y’alls thoughts on what you think the best we have a chance of getting for him is and what you think the lowest offer we should honestly consider is. I’ll do my best to start the ball rolling.
Of course, I want a mid-to-high first round and a mid-to-high 2cond round pick for him. But then…I want to win the power ball and bang a supermodel too and that ain’t a gonna happen. So here are my thoughts….The day of our game against the Titans the idea of 2 second round picks (what we paid to get Alex) was floated and I’d be very happy with that. But a part of me would prefer 2 picks in the 2018 draft to 1 pick in 2018 and another in 2019. After all, our NEED for picks is NOW. So I’d be very happy with a 2cond and a 3rd in 2018. That would put us back in halfway decent shape for the 2018 draft.
As to the lowest we should take…I think we’ll cut him if we can’t trade him so getting ANYTHING is better than nothing. And because every team in the league probably thinks we’ll probably cut him I suspect we’ll get a few offers from some “bargain shoppers”. So I think we should listen to ANY offers but that any offer less than a 2cond round pick we should tell them “I’ll think about it”. I mean….we can probably “fire-sale” him for a 5th round pick in the pre-season if the choice is that or cutting him and getting nothing.
What do y’all think?
01/13/2018 at 8:04 pm #106437001/13/2018 at 8:29 pm #1064371::@Chiefs4life24 340840 wrote:
1st and 3rd would be what he is worth to me
In the same year or over 2 years? Or either one?
01/13/2018 at 8:53 pm #106437201/13/2018 at 9:15 pm #106437301/13/2018 at 10:04 pm #106437401/13/2018 at 10:17 pm #1064375::@Bike 340843 wrote:
So does whatever team that takes him have to eat the remainder of his contract?
In a trade the acquiring team would have to eat $17 million of his contract (unless Alex agreed to renegotiate for say a 3 year deal but that wouldn’t affect us). Alex’s total contract is for $20.6 million next year, but $3.6 million of that is a pro-rated bonus that we have to pay no matter what we do. So cut or trade, we will have to eat that $3.6 million but we will free up $17 million in cap space. For the Chiefs its pretty simple. If they cut him or trade him before the final roster cuts then we eat the $3.6 million prorated bonus and create $17 million in cap space. And that is why we will cut or trade him. We need the cap space and we have Mahomes. So Alex is almost certainly history.
01/13/2018 at 10:26 pm #1064376::@ctchiefsfan 340845 wrote:
In a trade the acquiring team would have to eat $17 million of his contract (unless Alex agreed to renegotiate for say a 3 year deal but that wouldn’t affect us). Alex’s total contract is for $20.6 million next year, but $3.6 million of that is a pro-rated bonus that we have to pay no matter what we do. So cut or trade, we will have to eat that $3.6 million but we will free up $17 million in cap space. For the Chiefs its pretty simple. If they cut him or trade him before the final roster cuts then we eat the $3.6 million prorated bonus and create $17 million in cap space. And that is why we will cut or trade him. We need the cap space and we have Mahomes. So Alex is almost certainly history.
Well, if that’s the case, there will have to be a bidding war for us to get any picks. If not more than one team is interested, then no bidding war and no picks. They’ll simply wait till we cut him. Sound right?
01/13/2018 at 11:32 pm #106437701/14/2018 at 12:05 am #1064378::@Bike 340846 wrote:
Well, if that’s the case, there will have to be a bidding war for us to get any picks. If not more than one team is interested, then no bidding war and no picks. They’ll simply wait till we cut him. Sound right?
That is EXACTLY the worry. They all know we want to get rid of his cap hit. But the flip side to that coin is that there are several teams out there that either suck or are sort of a 6-10 to maybe 9-7 type team but haven’t got anything but a loser at QB and have lots of picks and lots of cap space…Cleveland and Buffalo come immediately come to mind. So they have the treasure and they NEED to get to get a damned good QB and QBs like Alex don’t grow on trees. Unless I’m mistaken he had the highest rating of any QB this season…yes, even higher than Brady.
So there *should* be several teams out there that want and need Alex and have the picks and cash to buy him. And yeah…they pretty much know that if they don’t trade for him we’ll cut him just for the cap space, but then they will wind up in a cap space bidding war where they might wind up having to offer $90 million or more over 3 years with probably $55 million guaranteed to get him. That’s a big risk to take on a guy that will be 34 at the start of next season.
Being logical, nobody really wants him for just the 1 year he has left on his contract. And Alex doesn’t really want to become a free Agent coming off 1 season with a 2cond or 3rd tier team and now being 35 in 2019. Alex wants 1 more BIG CONTRACT. So you trade for Alex and then ask him to renegotiate for a 3 year deal with maybe $40-$45 million guaranteed with only a $12 million cap hit in 2018. Alex would probably take it because it get’s him an extra $20-$25 million in guaranteed money. BOOM! You’ve just locked in a damned good QB for 3 years with the ability to toss him after 2 years if he doesn’t work out and only having to eat maybe $8-$15 million in dead money.
So there is really no way of telling what–if anything–we can get for him, but I think we have a very good chance of getting some good value for him. Not what we’d like but good value none-the-less.
01/14/2018 at 12:37 am #1064379::@ctchiefsfan 340848 wrote:
That is EXACTLY the worry. They all know we want to get rid of his cap hit. But the flip side to that coin is that there are several teams out there that either suck or are sort of a 6-10 to maybe 9-7 type team but haven’t got anything but a loser at QB and have lots of picks and lots of cap space…Cleveland and Buffalo come immediately come to mind. So they have the treasure and they NEED to get to get a damned good QB and QBs like Alex don’t grow on trees. Unless I’m mistaken he had the highest rating of any QB this season…yes, even higher than Brady.
So there *should* be several teams out there that want and need Alex and have the picks and cash to buy him. And yeah…they pretty much know that if they don’t trade for him we’ll cut him just for the cap space, but then they will wind up in a cap space bidding war where they might wind up having to offer $90 million or more over 3 years with probably $55 million guaranteed to get him. That’s a big risk to take on a guy that will be 34 at the start of next season.
Being logical, nobody really wants him for just the 1 year he has left on his contract. And Alex doesn’t really want to become a free Agent coming off 1 season with a 2cond or 3rd tier team and now being 35 in 2019. Alex wants 1 more BIG CONTRACT. So you trade for Alex and then ask him to renegotiate for a 3 year deal with maybe $40-$45 million guaranteed with only a $12 million cap hit in 2018. Alex would probably take it because it get’s him an extra $20-$25 million in guaranteed money. BOOM! You’ve just locked in a damned good QB for 3 years with the ability to toss him after 2 years if he doesn’t work out and only having to eat maybe $8-$15 million in dead money.
So there is really no way of telling what–if anything–we can get for him, but I think we have a very good chance of getting some good value for him. Not what we’d like but good value none-the-less.
Excellent explanation, thank you.
01/14/2018 at 12:55 am #1064380::Like CT mentioned the league knows that with the cap hit the Chiefs are going to have to cut him. I really don’t think that we will get a top pick for him.
But after having the season he had and the start of the playoff game before Andy went all Andy with the screens (One day I’ll get over it LOL) I think now we will get SOMETHING for him but my top is 3rd rounder. I just don’t see anymore than that with his cap hit being well known
01/14/2018 at 1:17 am #1064381::@matthewschiefs 340850 wrote:
Like CT mentioned the league knows that with the cap hit the Chiefs are going to have to cut him. I really don’t think that we will get a top pick for him.
But after having the season he had and the start of the playoff game before Andy went all Andy with the screens (One day I’ll get over it LOL) I think now we will get SOMETHING for him but my top is 3rd rounder. I just don’t see anymore than that with his cap hit being well known
Well, the Chiefs are gonna have to throw it out there that they just might keep Smith for the remainder of his contract and reduce the cap elsewhere. We need a mid 2nd and a 3rd pick at least out of this. Another year of Smith grooming Mahomes would be ideal as far as I’m concerned. I doubt this happens, but the pot needs to be stirred to get some picks thrown our way.
01/14/2018 at 1:55 am #106438201/14/2018 at 2:32 am #1064383::Well, let’s talk about our sucky cap situation for a second.
2 players that will most certainly be gone with zero dead money:
Revis – 4.5 mil cap hit
Ford – 8.7 mil cap hit
There’s over 13 mil right there.
Players that could, or should be released:
Hali – 9.4 – 1.7 dead money
Johnson – 10.2 – 2.2 dead money
Bailey – 8 – 2 dead money
Parker – 7 – 2 dead money
Everybody else that is taking up big chunks of cap space really has too much dead cap to outright release.
So there is 49 million freed up right there. And that’s just outright releases. We should be able to trade one or two of those guys. And if we could restructure Houston and Fisher, that could free up some more.
Berry has a whopping 25 mil dead cap space, so he ain’t going nowhere.
Doable? I dunno.
But that is one way to keep Smith for the remainder of his contract. -
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