5 things to watch as the Chiefs play the Bills in pivotal AFC game
from ArrowheadPride.com

Both teams are looking to bounce back from losses, with the AFC playoff picture in mind.

By Ron Kopp | @Ron_Kopp | Dec 9, 2023, 1:00pm CST

Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images

For the fourth-consecutive regular season, the (8-4) Kansas City Chiefs and the (6-6) Buffalo Bills will face off. Just like the last three, the game will be played at Arrowhead Stadium. Kickoff is set for 3:25 PM Arrowhead time on Sunday, one of the premier NFL matchups in Week 14.

The Chiefs stand as one-point favorites heading into the weekend, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. That line has come down since it was first revealed, leaning towards a Bills team that is as desperate as a contender can be. Any further losses could be the nail in the coffin of Buffalo’s postseason hopes.

Fresh off a bye week, too, the Bills are ripe to come into Kansas City and pull off the upset, one that would push the Chiefs further out from the one-seed race. I have five things to watch in a pivotal AFC battle:

1. Patrick Mahomes carrying the offense

Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images

The Chiefs’ offense will take the field against Buffalo without starting running back Isiah Pacheco for the first time this season. In fact, it will be the first game he has missed in his career, and it’s coming at a bad time.

As quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the pass game have struggled to find rhythm in recent games, the Chiefs have leaned on Pacheco. The starting running back touched the ball at least 20 times in each of the last four games, including the 123 yards he totaled against the Green Bay Packers on 21 combined carries and receptions.

The Chiefs will have to rely on Mahomes to drop back and throw constantly. He will have to maneuver around pressure: Buffalo has the fifth-highest pressure rate as a team this season and is tied for the NFL lead in sack rate (9.5%). Rookie left tackle Wanya Morris has his work cut out for him in his first career start.

Regardless of pass protection, this phase of the game will come down to whether or not the Chiefs’ wide receivers step up to connect with Mahomes consistently.

2. Containing Josh Allen

Photo by Nick Tre. Smith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Bills’ 6-6 record distracts from Buffalo’s offense being one of the league’s best this year. The Bills rank second in total yards per offensive play, second in red-zone conversion rate, and lead the NFL in third-down conversion rate (49.7%).

It starts with quarterback Josh Allen, who has the fourth-most dropbacks in the NFL this year. He is completing 68% of his passes and ranks second in touchdown passes (24), but the Chiefs know Allen’s running ability is a crucial component of this matchup.

Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo acknowledged the challenge on Thursday.

“He’s hard to bring down, he’s such a big dude,” Spagnuolo described for reporters. “I can’t find too many clips on there where he slides. He turns into a fullback really. I think he’s an elite competitor.”

This season, Allen ranks third among quarterbacks in rushing yards on scrambles — but balances that with throwing on the run.

“He’s always looking downfield,” Spags continued. “I know I put a PowerPoint up yesterday: scrambling then throwing it, how many passing yards… it was like 483 or something. I think it’s the best in the league… and he can tuck and run it too.”

The Bills have limited Allen’s usage as a designed runner so far this year, but it will assuredly be a part of the game plan this weekend in Kansas City.

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